McCain: 95 per cent Bush

Does John McCain really think his economic expertise is needed in Washington to solve the financial crisis? I'm sure he'll end up agreeing with Bush again.

Thanks to 95percent for the graphic.

Anyway I'm off to the Australian bush for a week. See ya!

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Obama: start of the surge?

The narrowing has turned into a lead for Barack Obama in the polls.

FiveThirtyEight: (20/09/08) Electoral College Vote at 315.5/226.5 in Obama's favour, compared with 261/277 last week. The popular vote is at 50.3%/47.9%.

RealClearPolitics (21/09/08) has a 47.6% to 45.5% lead to Obama based on an average of 10 national polls. This is reversal of last week's. The polls are of both Registered Voters (RV) and Likely Voters (LV).

Today's latest prices at Intrade: Obama 50.8, McCain 47.7.

If Sarah Palin starts having real media conferences and answering hard questions, things could change. Which way is anyone's guess.

For some other websites try Perspctv and Pollster.com Thanks to Possum for the links.

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With advisors like these who needs enemies?

This Obama ad complements the last post very well. Enjoy!

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McCain's sky hasn't fallen just yet

Black Friday was a great headline. But with the Wall Street rally overnight it wasn't to be.

Australian economist John Quiggin has been posting about the current stock markets crisis:

No doubt, this too will pass. But it’s just about impossible to see things returning to the status quo ante. A severe recession now seems inevitable. And when it ends, we’ll be looking at a greatly contracted financial sector, with governments deeply enmeshed in both ownership and regulation. Among the likely consequences, a huge decline in the economic importance of New York City, as the firms that defined Wall Street disappear. What next?

My initial response: It's part of the decline of the American Empire. The inevitable shift to Asia, and back to Europe to some extent, is now in full swing. The Chinese should be able to buy up U.S. assets at bargain basement prices. They'll just be redeeming debt, private and public.

John agrees with It's the stupid economy that this could be the end of John McCain's comeback. Imagine Sarah Palin in charge of the economy as well as being Commander-in-Chief.

Politically, even allowing for the incredible triviality of US election campaigns, it’s hard to see McCain surviving once the implications of this sink in. From the Keating Five to deregulation in the 90s, he’s been in the pockets of the financial sector throughout his career.

It's instructive to look at the scrolling list of academics who endorse the Economic Plan on McCain's website. It's the usual suspects.

First is George Shultz, Ronald Reagan's Secretary of State and Labor and Treasury Secretary under Nixon. He was an adviser to George W. Bush for his 2000 presidential campaign. Currently he is on the Board of JP Morgan and is a member of Stanford University's Hoover Institution.

Another McCainite from Stanford is John Taylor. His profile is hardly that of a Washington outsider:

For four years from 2001 to 2005, Taylor served as Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs where he was responsible for U.S. policies in international finance, which includes currency markets, trade in financial services, foreign investment,international debt and development, and oversight of the international Monetary Fund and the World Bank. He was also responsible for coordinating financial policy with the G-7 countries, was chair of the working party on international macroeconomics at the OECD, and was a member of the Board of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation.

A third Hoover professor is John Cogan whose bio includes:

During the 2000 presidential campaign he served as a senior economic adviser to George W. Bush on issues relating to tax, budget, and social security policy. Following the 2000 presidential election, he directed President Bush's budget transition team.

Glenn Hubbard is Dean of the Columbia University Graduate School of Business. He was one of the designers of Bush's 2003 tax cuts. He also chaired the Council of Economic Advisors for President George W. Bush for two years.

There are also a number of Nobel Prize winners such as Gary Becker, who at 77 is just a touch older than the candidate. His professorship is at the University of Chicago, but he is also a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.

John McCain tries to distance himself from George W. Bush and the so-called Washington establishment. He wants to be seen as the outsider despite spending 26 years in Congress. There must be some irony in his connection to the Hoover Institution given Herbert Hoover's presidency at the start of the Great Depression.

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Viva Obama Mariachi style

How's your Spanish? Amigos de Obama has a video of campaign song, Viva Obama, to brighten up your day.

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Obama Short-priced Favorite Down Under

There has been a lot of political interest in animals lately, so an equine example seems appropriate.

Australians are keenly looking forward to the race that stops a nation on the first Tuesday in November.

It’s not the US elections! So what is it?

It’s the Melbourne Cup , Australia’s richest horse race. Our own Kentucky Derby. Even the House of Representatives and Senate in Canberra adjourn to watch the race. So do State Parliaments around the country.

Might and Power, The Grafter, Patron, Nimblefoot.
These aren’t episodes of the West Wing!

Windbag, Statesman, Black Knight, Carbine, Red Handed, Rising Fast.
Are they nicknames of Presidential candidates?

Baghdad Note, Clean Sweep, Light Fingers, Media Puzzle.
They’re not election headlines for newspapers or blog posts.

So what are they? They’re some of the winners of the Melbourne Cup over its 146 year history. Some are national icons like Man o’ War or Seabiscuit in the United States. They are better known than most of our Prime Ministers. Phar Lap, who died in suspicious circumstances in California in 1932, is the most famous.

Which brings me to the campaign trail in Australia. After the 2000 fiasco in Florida, where a handful of votes decided the Presidency, Democrats are only too aware that every vote can count. The votes of citizens outside the U.S. may be crucial in this year’s potential dead heat. According to Democrats Abroad Australia there are 100,000 citizens in Australia. A mere 414 voted in the Democrats Abroad Primary that Barack Obama won comfortably in February:

Approximately 20,000 voted globally in the primary. The Asia Pacific (AP) Region broke strongly for Obama 72.6% - 25.6%. Globally, it was Obama 65.8% - 32.5% over Clinton in the Global Primary, conducted Feb. 1-12. Primary Results - Asia Pacific Region

A similar number were surveyed in a recent GlobeScan poll for the BBC:

All 22 countries in a BBC World Service poll would prefer Democratic nominee Barack Obama elected US president instead of his Republican rival John McCain. Obama is preferred by a four to one margin on average across the 22,000 people polled.
Australia has among the largest majorities favouring Barack Obama’s election as US president and saying America’s relations with the rest of the world would improve under an Obama presidency. Obama win preferred in world poll

Down under, the breakdown was 67% favouring Obama with only 13% preferring McCain. 62% thought Australia’s relations with the rest of the world would improve with Barack as President. The sample size was 1000.

This is not necessarily the good news for Obama supporters. John Kerry won this poll in 2004.

Democrats Abroad Australia is the official Obama organisation in Australia. It has groups in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. Its members and supporters are distributing Tell An American To Vote leaflets during morning rush hour in central Sydney and at the famous Bondi Beach. The Melbourne Chapter of DAA is planning to host a debate of the issues in the current US presidential election with a prominent Democrat and a prominent Republican. Events are also taking place to watch the presidential debates between Obama and McCain.

The current focus is to register potential voters and help them with voting procedures whilst overseas. As Carmelan Polce, Regional Field Director of Pacific Americans Abroad for Obama, commented:

We need all the help we can get to find US citizens who support Obama and register them to vote by Absentee ballot. This will be a very close election!! Every vote counts!! Please do not delay - register to vote and request your absentee ballot NOW!!

One of the volunteers, Greg Carr worked in Sydney near the Harbour Bridge:

Here in Sydney Australia, enthusiastic Democrats turned out to support Obama's Bridges To Hope. And indeed, it was hard to keep them in one place for a photo. So enthusiastic, so hopeful; as we all are.

He also campaigned at the Sydney Gay Mardi Gras Parade, one of Sydney's premier events where more than half a million people watched the parade.

They are also desperately seeking campus outreach volunteers to help us find U.S. study abroad students on Australian university campuses.

There are both official DAA Facebook groups such as Australia for Obama and several other unofficial ones such as Real Labor Supporters Don't Back Republicans.

Cassidy Knowlton, Chairwoman, Democrats Abroad Victoria said recently:

Eight years ago America was at peace, was respected in the world and had a booming economy. Now we are mired in an unnecessary and hugely expensive war, our allies have deserted us, our economy is in the toilet and our civil liberties have been stolen. John McCain voted with George Bush 90% of he time, and if elected he will continue to enact policies that destroy America. He ants to overturn Roe v Wade and take away a woman's right to control her own body. He wants to drill in Alaska for a small amount of oil, even though he knows it would make no difference whatsoever to the current fuel crisis and would destroy one of the few pristine wildernesses we have left.

McCain has said "100 years in Iraq would be fine with me." How many more American men and women in uniform have to die because of Republican arrogance and lies? Vanity Fair has estimated the Iraq war has cost $3 trillion already. How many more trillions of dollars, dollars that we could be using to help Americans pay for health care, education, clean energy, are we going to burn in Iraq?

The choice couldn't be more clear. Obama wants to protect Americans' rights, McCain wants to take them away. Obama wants to get us out of the quagmire that is Iraq and support our troops by bringing them home; McCain wants to keep them there for 100 years and throw away countless thousands of American lives on a failed war based on a lie. Obama wants to invest in clean energy, create jobs and spark economic growth to deal with the fuel crisis. McCain wants to destroy one of the few pristine wilderness areas left in America to drill for oil, which would increase oil supplies by less than 1 per cent and would not be available for use until 2017. Obama wants to lower taxes for the middle class and lower-income Americans; McCain wants to raise them.

As for the blogoshpere, the right wing down here have embraced Sarah Palin’s candidacy, just as the progressives have welcomed Barack Obama as a breathe of fresh air. I’ve posted about local bloggers’ reactions on Voices without Votes . Before the Palin factor, there was little comment from the conservative side. Ironically, it appears that most of the DAA activists are women.

In this volatile electoral climate, we can expect vote-chasing outside the U.S. to hot up in coming weeks. Australians are well known for liking a bet. What odds a black president? Another Melbourne Cup winner was called Even Stevens!

This blogpost is cross-posted from Voices Without Votes, a Global Voices project that aims to enable readers to experience American events through the eyes of ordinary citizens from outside the United States.

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It's the stupid economy

Barack Obama has been handed perhaps his strongest weapon with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the global markets slide. John McCain is a self-professed economics novice, though he denies ever saying:

"The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should," McCain said. "I've got Greenspan's book." McCain: It's about the economy

The economic gloom has put Barack Obama on the offensive.

"John McCain has spent decades in Washington supporting financial institutions instead of their customers," Obama told a crowd of about 2,100 at the Colorado School of Mines.

"In fact, one of the biggest proponents of deregulation in the financial sector is Phil Gramm -- the same man who helped write John McCain's economic plan," Obama continued. He said Gramm is "the same man who said that we're going through a 'mental recession,' and the same man who called the United States of America a 'nation of whiners.'"

"So it's hard to understand how Senator McCain is going to get us out of this crisis by doing the same things with the same old players," Obama said. Obama Ridicules McCain's Economic Response

McCain's Country First website has an economic plan: Jobs for America. Like Ronald Reagan he is promising to get the budget out of deficit. Ronnie failed dismally and with his commitment to tax cuts for the rich, McCain would too.

The rest of the world is watching to see how the U.S. handles the crisis. His plan doesn't mention better regulation of financial institutions. Yesterday, he embraced comprehensive reform. It's probably too little, too late. Expect a narrowing in the polls this week.

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Labor marks time in the West

The election of Eric Ripper as leader of the ALP in the Western Australian parliament is a disappointment. The withdrawal of Alannah McTiernan from the contest was even more so. With four years to go, let's hope that Labor can move on from a caretaker situation fairly quickly. You can be sure that the new Liberal/National coalition will not be asleep at the wheel. Their rush to get uranium mining underway is a clear signal that things are in for a much bigger shake up than many expect.

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Tina Palin/Sarah Fey on Saturday Night Live

I think Tina would make a better VP. Any Tina.

For comments on this video and other US election issues, please visit Voices without Votes.

VwV international bloggers are being cross posted on Huffington Post this week. First Off The Bus is John Liebhardt. Global Round Up: International Bloggers Voice Fear of Palin, Interest in Campaign

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WA: looking after the Kimberley

As a former resident of Broome, I'm wondering what difference the new government will make. The Kimberley was in the process of renewal. If Health and Law and Order are Liberal priorities, they will have to duplicate the newly built Police Station and the "as new" hospital.

It's hard to say, as the opposition had no concrete proposals that I was aware of during 15 months there. For details of what was happening under Alan Carpenter's Labor government, videos of the Kimberley Cabinet earlier this year are instructive.

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