Showing posts with label US Election 2008. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Election 2008. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

The best of Voices without Votes

Voices without Votes is winding up with a roundup of some of the best posts from around the world during the last year:

Less than one year ago, Voices without Votes was created to offer a voice of those who couldn't vote in the U.S. presidential election to those who could. Our exciting journey has reached its final destination with Barack Obama's inauguration today. However, before we say “goodbye,” our authors have chosen their top posts (in a time-line order) of the most memorable, prolific or simply silly moments from the election.
The link: The best of VwV and the presidential campaign

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Friday, January 9, 2009

Bush's mate Howard back in Washington

A cross post with Voices without Votes:

The upcoming inauguration has taken an Aussie turn. Barack Obama's displacement from Blair House was caused by former Australian Prime Minister John Howard who is to receive the US Medal of Freedom from his mate George W. Bush.

U.S. bloggers were outraged apparently. Australian bloggers were just as vocal.

For more.

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Monday, November 10, 2008

Three economists and a hoyden

Another cross-post for Voices without Votes. Please write Your One Thing at Hoyden about Town:

Bloggers in Australia have been looking at what Barack Obama might actually be going to do as President.

Harry Clarke’s ‘commentary on economics, politics & other things’ discovered an Obama policy that is already under challenge. He seemed attracted to the idea of community service though his source didn’t:

Gregory Mankiw points out that Barack Obama supports the conscription of youth into community service. I wonder how many aged lefties will now dump on Obama on the basis of past Vietnam Moratorium ideals. Well of course its not this aged lot who now face the prospect of being conscripted so that a certain amount of soundly-justified hypocrisy is plausible.

Maybe spending the last week in China has dented my democratic ideals but I think the Obama suggestion makes a lot of sense.
Obama supports conscription
Nicholas Gruen, CEO of Lateral Economics who posts at Club Troppo focused on the one big thing which Obama has done since Tuesday:
Paul Krugman was always critical of Obama for not being more partisan. We’ll see what happens. In my ignorance I’m expecting Obama to be like Clinton - a pro when it comes to policy who hires the best advice he can get unlike Republicans who haven’t done that since - well perhaps someone can remind me. But I don’t expect him to be particularly bold. But who knows. The thing that always struck me as ridiculous about Krugman’s critique is that being all post-partisan was a good way to build a coalatition and get into power. You find out how people are going to govern after they get into power - or hasn’t Krugman noticed. FDR was elected on a platform of balancing the budget.

And now we get to see how Obama governs. And his first decision is to go for a hard man as a chief of staff - Obama plays the good cop and everyone is telling us that Rahm Emanuel gets to play the bad cop. I’ll be interested to see if Krugman has anything to say on this - I’ve not seen it yet. But it’s a first sign that Obama is under no illusions about how lovely the Republicans will be towards him.
Rahm Emanuel - the enforcer
Another economist, John Quiggin, whose blog presents itself as a ‘Commentary on Australian & world events from a social-democratic perspective’ looked forward to:
a revival of the progressive politics of the New Deal, in retreat ever since the 1970s. If Obama can combine an economic recovery with a new commitment to social equity, his election victory could prove more significant than any since that of Roosevelt in 1932.
He mentioned several policy areas, one of which is global warming:
… looming over all of this is climate change. Obama has promised a cap-and-trade scheme, and a return to world leadership at Copenhagen. But, as in Australia, there will be powerful voices calling for a continuation of the Bush policy of delay and denial, and putting the financial crisis forward as a pretext. Neither the world nor the position of the US as a world leader can afford this.
A tough road ahead
I feel a ‘three economists in a boat’ joke coming on. So let’s give Tigtog at Hoyden About Town the punch line. She speculated about what Obama’s priorities should be:
Just like a gazillion others, I’ve been thinking about what Obama could/should do, in his first 100 days in office, that would be small in terms of the effort required (falling within executive powers entirely, no Congressional courting/approval required) but that would make an immediate, huge, difference to many people.

I ended up deciding that there were so many things that needed fixing, that I would be better off focussing on what I would be horrendously disappointed to find that he was not going to do. So here’s my One Thing that I will be broken-hearted if he does not do it:

1. negate the Global Gag Rule (aka Mexico City Policy)

Our continuing research shows the gag rule is eroding family planning and reproductive health services in developing countries. There is no evidence that it has reduced the incidence of abortion globally. On the contrary, it impedes the very services that help women avoid unwanted pregnancy from the start.

What's Your One Thing?

Just one thing
According to the blog, a hoyden (hoid’n) is a woman of saucy, boisterous or carefree behavior. A match for 3 economists anyday.

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Thursday, November 6, 2008

Australia welcomes Obama, well most

A post for Voices without Votes:

Australian bloggers found their voices after being glued to the media or live-blogging the election for most of Wednesday our time.

Man of Lettuce, Sydney taxi driver and author of Cablog, joined work and pleasure as usual on election night:

Last night the City was awash with the intoxicating ambience of Barack Obama’s victory. An earlier invitation to the Democrats Abroad celebration party on Oxford Street had alerted me to a premier content source...sheer exhilaration plus alcohol - perfect.
His account of an encounter in his cab with an African American couple should be read in full on his unique blog. He finishes on his own note of hope:
…Let’s pray he can fulfil this vision and unify all Americans, thereby becoming one of their great Presidents.
O-ba-ma
An Onymous Lefty, Jeremy, raised a sour note. Known for his sarcastic posts, he put that aside to express his disgust at the California vote against gay marriage in straightforward language:
…the fact that many of his voters (he won California, after all) turned out to take this basic civil right away from gay people seriously tarnishes his victory. It implies that had he been more principled, and really stood for civil rights - and asked his voters to genuinely consider why, at a moment of the triumph of African Americans as a previously-persecuted group, they would even consider turning that persecution on others - then the gay people of California would not have just lost theirs.

I stand by my earlier refusal to get too excited by the election result.
Obama refuses to stand up for civil rights; Californians lose theirs
Mark Bahnisch at Larvatus Prodeo looked at the impact of the web on the elections and possible future directions:
No doubt one of the big stories about the US election will be the influence of the blogosphere and the netroots. In many ways, the rise of the intertubes in politics was an unintended consequence of the Rove approach to politics…

All technology is shaped socially. Blogging, YouTube, and other social media have been enablers and not just causes of this invigoration of democracy. I’d like to see some research and analysis focused on the wellsprings of activism we’ve seen bubbling up. I think that would be, in many ways, a more productive frame through which to look at what’s interesting, distinctive and exciting about this campaign than yet another round of “journos v. bloggers” style articles.
US election: Yes we can!
Andrew Bolt has been posted on Voices without Votes before. He is a daily newspaper columnist with Melbourne’s Herald Sun and media spokesperson for the right wing in Australia. He is a climate change denier, a critic of anything progressive (the dreaded left-wing, latte and chardonnay drinking socialists) and has “issues” with race.

Just before conceding Obama’s win yesterday, his blog featured a video clip outside a polling booth with the following comments:
Should McCain win, against all predictions and the polls, there will be trouble:

Toledo police are gearing up for possible “civil unrest” during and after tomorrow’s elections.

Indeed, the menace outside one polling booth, patrolled by Black Panthers, is palpable
Obama or McCain. UPDATE: It’s Obama
The old politics of fear and prejudice still live with us. Judge for yourself.

Finally, Miriam Lyons, from the Centre for Policy Development, also shared her thoughts on the Obama presidency at Larvatus Prodeo:
Today’s election result heralds the rise of Green Keynesianism. The US economy is in the toilet and smart economists are advocating direct investment over a more consumer-based fiscal stimulus.

The Obama campaign’s target for emissions cuts was 80% by 2050 - a fair way ahead of Oz Labor’s as-yet-unaltered election promise of 60% by 2050. With the Arctic ice-sheet melting rapidly even an 80% target is too low for a developed country like the US, but it should certainly give Professor Ross Garnaut reason to revise his pessimism about the likely outcome of the Copenhagen round of climate negotiations. It’s worth noting that the Obama campaign’s climate and energy platform specifically called for 100% auctioning of permits.
This is serious stuff. Miriam also reflected on possible impacts on Australia by Obama’s approach to war, economics and international relations. As a think-tank person herself, it was no surprise that she concluded with their likely role in the Obama era:
Just as an aside, it will be interesting to follow the relationship between progressive think tanks & the new administration. Expect to see the traditional influx from conservative think tanks to Republican administrations mirrored on the Democrat side this time around.
Guest Post by Miriam Lyons: What does an Obama win mean for Australia?
If George W. Bush represents the Dark Ages in terms of intellectual progress and political awareness, Barack Obama seems squarely planted in the Enlightenment.

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Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Barack Obama: Teacher not Preacher

One of our TV presenters has just suggested that there was a fair bit of evangelical fervour about Barack Obama's victory speech. What really impressed me was that he didn't rev up the crowd. He chose not to join their attempts to turn the slogan "Yes We Can" into a mindless chant. He challenged them with ideas not theatre. His performance was controlled and rational. He is the teacher not the preacher.

For world reaction please see President-Elect Barack Obama: The blogosphere reacts

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Tuesday, November 4, 2008

World Waiting for Obama

This article from Guardian correspondents around the globe has been picked up by Melbourne's Age newspaper as Change they want. Some of the comments include:

From Kabul

"I think we have almost reached the point of no return. There are no good solutions left," said Ali Padsha, 19, who was raised in America. "The longer foreign forces stay, the more problems will be created. When we [Afghans] see foreign forces in our country, it makes us crazy, it always has.

"The new Taliban are smarter than before and not as hardcore. They know what to do to keep the people happy."
From Paris
"We don't lynch Americans in the street," said Charlotte Lepri, a US specialist at the French thinktank, Institute for Research in Integrated Strategies (IRIS). "But there are certain associations with Bush. Now there is a turnaround and real enthusiasm for a black candidate who represents France's ideal of the American dream."
From Gaza
Like many Gazans, Mohammed Telbani, the factory's general manager, says he has little interest in the election. "Presidents have changed but no one did anything for us," he said, waving his hand dismissively. He doubts that a new president will have the power or the will to reverse decades of US policy in the Middle East which he, like most here, sees as decisively pro-Israeli. "Without pressure on Israel there won't be any solution to the problem," he said.

The world holds its breath as America decides
For more views from outside the United States please visit Voices without Votes, where bloggers from around the globe analyse the US election.

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Last polls before the one that counts

Barack Obama has a decisive lead over John McCain in both national and state opinion polls. My preferred poll for the finish line is Pew Research Center. It is objective and authoritative. Their 52%/46% shouldn't be far off the mark.

Poll junkies can use my Delicious polls bookmarks if you wish.

It’s no longer a case of will Obama win but by how many Electoral College Votess. Even Zogby has the battleground States Obama’s way today with a comfortable lead in the national vote.

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Monday, November 3, 2008

McCain praying for rain

The Republicans are supposed to be praying for a miracle. Perhaps a less supernatural event would be enough for McCain to win. According to a U.S. study rain affects voter turnout by up to 1%:

The relationship between bad weather and lower levels of voter turnout is widely espoused by media, political practitioners, and, perhaps, even political scientists. Yet, there is virtually no solid empirical evidence linking weather to voter participation. This paper provides an extensive test of the claim. We examine the effect of weather on voter turnout in 14 U.S. presidential elections. Using GIS interpolations, we employ meteorological data drawn from over 22,000 U.S. weather stations to provide election day estimates of rain and snow for each U.S. county.

We find that, when compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases turnout by almost .5%. Poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican party's vote share. Indeed, the weather may have contributed to two Electoral College outcomes, the 1960 and 2000 presidential elections.
The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
All good right-wing evangelists should be praying for rain on Tuesday!

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The World Votes

Jillian York of Voices without Votes has reported on Huffington Post about websites which cover global election maps tracking world opinion:

A quick glance at Voices without Votes or the global blogosphere and it's clear who the world wants for president: Barack Obama. It seems that, despite the relative closeness of the race in the United States, the rest of the world likes his charisma, his foreign policy, his take on the issues, and perhaps most of all, the fact that he's so different from George W. Bush, whom it's clear the world does not approve of.
The World Is Not Undecided


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Saturday, November 1, 2008

Take Away Election Predictor



This looks like fun. You can get your own at The Take Away

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Demolishing Democrats with Explosive Politics



This video is at Talking Point Memo's TPM election Central

The Republican ad for one of its congressional candidates is about as subtle as it gets.

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Friday, October 31, 2008

Latest Poll: Shamen dance to Obama's tune


According to the BBC's Dan Collyns, Peruvian shamen overwhelming support Barack Obama with only a few for John McCain:

As the US presidential election nears, the shamans of Peru have been displaying their own methods for ensuring the success of their chosen candidate.
Peru's shamen send US election vibes
My Quechua is a bit rusty so we'll have to trust the translator. Click the image or the link to see the video.

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Thursday, October 30, 2008

Obama: civil rights to terrorists

Talking Points Memo reports that John McCain has sent a robocall to voters in his home State of Arizona. This part of the recording sounds like desperate stuff:

If Democrats win full control of government, they will want to give civil rights to terrorists and talk unconditionally to dictators and state sponsors of terror.
It's also strange that he appears to be wasting money in his own State where he should have a comfortable lead.

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Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Wildcats strike against pit-bulls

Indiana apparently doesn't allow robocalls. So the McCain/Palin campaign asked a call centre to read out the latest smears. They underestimated the determination of the local workers . Three dozen walked out in protest. Still strength in unity. No wonder employers will do anything to make wildcat strikes illegal.

Fellow Voices without Votes blogger, Qwaider, is blown away by this small skirmish in a dirty war:

And they actually decided to walk out! Sacrificing so much in this fragile economy

That's something no robot can match. Moral Integrity!
WOW Moment!


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Tuesday, October 28, 2008

The Whole World Blogging: Voices without Votes

If you haven't logged onto Voices without Votes yet, there's still a week to go of world bloggers tackling the U.S. elections. A report from The Washington Post explains the context:

Voices Without Votes was born in early February -- yep, in time for Super Tuesday -- and it's edited by Amira Al Hussaini, a 35-year-old journalist from Bahrain who currently lives in Canada. The site's motto reads: "America votes. The world speaks." Recent elections in Zimbabwe and New Zealand have attracted some attention online, Al Hussaini says, but not nearly to the extent that the battle for the American presidency has.
The Election That Has the Whole World Blogging
The coordinator, Amira Al Hussaini, has been doing a fantastic job!

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Sunday, October 26, 2008

Robocall Rants: e-lectioneering 2.0

I knew that robocalls had arrived in Australia. Nevertheless, when Prime Minister John Howard rang me before last year’s election I was startled by his voice at first. Because it was a recorded message, my colourful response was wasted.

It’s the electronic age in political campaigning these days. We are now well acquainted with the political use of the Web. Party and candidate websites, blogging, social networking pages, online videos, and internet advertising are just some of the techniques used.

It has been a multi-media frenzy in the U.S. this presidential election season. Opponents of Barack Obama have even been direct-mailing DVDs to spread their smears. As Huffington Post reported recently:

This week, 28 million copies of a right-wing, terror propaganda DVD are being mailed and bundled in newspaper deliveries to voters in swing states. The 60-minute DVDs, titled Obsession: Radical Islam's War Against the West, are landing on doorsteps in a campaign coinciding with the 7th anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. Pro-McCain Group Dumping 28 Million Terror Scare DVDs in Swing States
Jillian York captured some of the reaction at Voices without Votes:
Almost immediately, newspapers began receiving complaints for their inclusion of the DVD, which was funded by The Clarion Fund, a group set up to combat “the most urgent threat of radical Islam.” Bloggers in the U.S. and abroad have expressed anger at both the distribution of the DVDs and the related crime. Global: “Obsession” Propaganda Film Incites Anger
Political Spam via email is also part of this Campaigning 2.0. Organisations such as Moveon in the U.S. and GetUp! in Australia use direct email to their subscribers as a major campaigning tool. You can also sign up to SMS or text messages from political candidates, such as Obama’s Vice Presidential announcement. This kind of email is supposed to be sent with the agreement of the recipient but unsolicited messages have become more common:
I recently received a spam that supports the case of Michael Skelly for Congress, saying negative things about incumbent John Culberson. What's interesting: this is my home precinct. These people are actually competing for my vote. This leads to the question: how on earth did the Skelly people manage to map my work email address to my home mailing address? Privacy Digest: Targeted political spam
Robocalls are now on the frontline. These phone calls use computerized auto-dialling and a computer-delivered recorded message. In other words, telephone Spam. They have become a major smear weapon:
It was perhaps predictable that the task of recording the worst of McCain's robo-slime -- the worst so far, at least -- would fall to Rudy Giuliani.

Giuliani has recorded a new McCain robocall in which he suggests, in effect, that Barack Obama doesn't think sex offenders, drug dealers and murders should have to go to jail, according to Jennifer Henderson, a stay-at-home mom in Maine who tells us she received the call.
In New McCain Robocall, Rudy Giuliani Suggests Obama Opposes Jailing Murderers And Rapists
The Washington Monthly reported on the twists and turns:
John McCain hated robocalls eight years ago when they were used to smear him and his family. John McCain hated robocalls nine months ago when his rivals for the Republican nomination used the tactic against him. And yet, McCain loves robocalls now.
It turns out, when Bush used robocalls to destroy McCain eight years ago, he relied on a firm called FLS, run by a Republican activist named Jeff Larson. And who is McCain paying now to smear Barack Obama with deceptive robocalls? Jeff Larson's FLS. Political Animal: ROBOCALL IRONY....
There is even an anti-robocall YouTube video from the Obama campaign replaying a robocall smear and calling for a fight back: McCain's Robocalls: An All Out Assault. In fact there is compelling evidence that negative campaigning can be counter productive. A recent survey by the Pew Research Center found that 56% of registered voters polled thought McCain was “too personally critical” of his opponent compared with 26% who felt that about Obama. Growing Doubts About McCain's Judgment, Age and Campaign Conduct

The latest allegation of robocall smears also comes from the Huffington Post, an unashamedly anti-McCain source:
The McCain campaign has authorized another vicious robocall that claims Barack Obama and Democrats would cut off funds for the military, have accused American troops of "war crimes," and pose a threat to national security.
New McCain Robocall: Obama "Accused US Troops Of War Crimes"
There is already a bias against Spam email based on user experiences. Certainly we are all sick of having to listen to a recorded voice or music which goes on interminably. A political robocall is likely to come in between two nuisance ads from Call Centres given their frequency. These kinds of communication have inbuilt negatives which can destroy the message. But would they be doing it if their focus groups or sales figures indicated that these methods don't work? Direct mail through the post has a low take up but advertisers still find it very effective. Canada Post certainly think so. By the amount of traffic, the same must be true of telephone sales.

Australia has laws against Spam and unwanted phone calls. There is an opt-out service for telephones services called the Do Not Call Register but many organisations are exempt, including political groups. The U.S. has a Federal Do Not Call Register that similarly does not block political organisations. There is a private group, The National Political Do Not Contact Registry, which offers to contact politicians for free asking them to stop sending robocalls.

There has been one case where apparently a group was fined $100,000 for sending anonymous robocall messages to voters in North Carolina during the primaries this year. Women's Group Pays $100,000 Fine For N.C. Robocalls they had breached laws requiring them to identify the source of the call and provide contact details.

Spam is illegal here:
Under the Spam Act 2003 it is illegal to send, or cause to be sent, unsolicited commercial electronic messages. The Act covers email, instant messaging, SMS and MMS (text and image-based mobile phone messaging) of a commercial nature. It does not cover faxes, internet pop-ups or voice telemarketing. Australian Communications and Media Authority: Spam & e–Security
Unsurprisingly, this hasn’t stopped the flow of unwelcome messages but the flood seems to have receded. coincidentally I received one from Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) offering me a slice of $US 2.5 million. Pretty attractive given the current exchange rate. Strange that it has a Yahoo China email address. Obviously easier to get things out of there than in.

It will be interesting to see if these responses will be enough to protect Australians from intrusive political messages that are often mischievous and misleading. No doubt we will follow the e-lectioneering trends from across the Pacific.

The vexed issue of how the law should deal with false or misleading claims in new digital-age campaigning must wait for another post.

It's bound to be one step behind the technology.

UPDATE:

The New York Times reports on spam politicking at its worst:
A new e-mail making the rounds among Jewish voters in Pennsylvania this week falsely alleged that Mr. Obama “taught members of Acorn to commit voter registration fraud,’’ and equated a vote for Senator Barack Obama with the “tragic mistake” of their Jewish ancestors, who “ignored the warning signs in the 1930’s and 1940’s.”

At first blush, it was typical of the sorts of e-mails floating around with false, unsubstantiated and incendiary claims this year.

But where most of the attack e-mails against Mr. Obama have been mostly either anonymous or from people outside of mainstream politics, this one had an unusually official provenance: It was sponsored by the Pennsylvania Republican Party’s “Victory 2008” committee.
Pennsylvania Republicans Send False Anti-Obama E-mail


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Saturday, October 25, 2008

US election through the eyes of world bloggers

Part of a post by Ethan Zuckerman, at my heart's in accra, about Voices without Votes:

Sick of the US election dominating all media coverage? Dreaming of a future date, perhaps two weeks away, when it’s possible that headlines won’t feature Sarah Palin?

You could always turn to international news, where the question seems to be, “What does the rest of the world think about the US election?”

In other words, “Enough about me, what do you think of me?”

That was more or less my response some months ago when some of the Global Voices team came to me and suggested we try to cover the US elections through the eyes of the developing world. Through the brilliant work of Amira Al Hussaini, support of authors like Hoa Quach and others, we’ve put together Voices Without Votes, a website that collects international blog perspectives on the US elections.

Read today and you’ll discover reports on a shortage of pro-Obama yamulkes,
Voices without Votes, comments from the Philippines about a suspicious misspelling on New York ballots, and the reasons Cubans are hoping for an Obama victory. It’s been one of our most successful projects and one that I’m now inordinately proud of.
For the full post: A closer look at a deep blue world

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Friday, October 24, 2008

McCain wins by single vote: hunt for non-voter



You can customize this video from CNNBC and insert the name of the non-voter. Just click this link Obama's Loss Traced To....

This has to be a not-too-subtle campaign tactic by the Democrats. Nightmares about Florida 2000.

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Thursday, October 23, 2008

New Washington Post-ABC Tracking Poll

There is a new tracking poll from the Washington Post-ABC News. It's just into its second day. More good news for Obama:

Barack Obama is up 11 points on John McCain among likely voters in the new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll, 54 to 43 percent.
...Two in 10 independent voters said they are more inclined to vote for Obama because of Powell's backing; 4 percent said they were nudged the other way.
This Race Goes to 11 - Powell Helps with Indies
A graphic from the same article:


It seems that George W. Bush is a continuing anchor for John McCain but Barack Obama is overcoming the problem of inexperience. Perhaps his incredibly high media profile over the last year has added to perceptions of him as a national figure of stature.

Increasingly commentators are talking about what an Obama government will mean for foreign affairs and the economy. Doubtless many supporters outside America, and inside for that matter, will be demanding real progress in the Middle East and other areas of failed U.S. policy within a short time?

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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Zogby poll back on track?


Lots of analysts went off the Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll when it showed a narrowing in McCain's favour. I tried to be a bit loyal because Reuters are one of the sponsors of Voices without Votes and in the spirit of even-handedness. Today's figures bring some comfort to Obama supporters. Perhaps Colin the warrior has more weight than Joe the plumber.

New data from State polling seems to be all over the place but the national polls still give Barack a handy lead.

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