Spinning the Higgins and Bradfield By-election Numbers

Lots of talk about an Abbott triumph. How does it measure up against the stats? Some data comparing Saturday with the 2007 election results:

Bradfield
2009 Turnout 74.24%, Fletcher 36,628 votes
2007 Turnout 94.03% Nelson 49,817 votes

Fletcher's vote was down 4.47 %.

Higgins
2009 Turnout 71.70%, O'Dwyer 32,779 votes
2007 93.77% 2007, Costello 43,761 votes

O'Dwyer's vote was up 0.34%

The 2009 By-election figures do not include postal votes.

It appears that 10,000 less people voted for each Liberal candidate this time.

Replacing Malcolm Turnbull and walking away from the climate change consensus may have shored up the true blue Liberal heartland, just. Could be the Palin effect at work.

An interesting comparison is the 2008 by-elections:

Gippsland turnout 89.68%,
Mayo 80.12% and
Lyne 87.41%.

This is the stuff of which myths are made. Anyway, a win is a win is a ...

Now it's on to Copenhagen.

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