The Budget: What's in it for...

Labor's 2013-14 Federal budget deserves a close look.

First, an ALP video for the true believers: The Federal Budget in 3 minutes

Next is the usual calm economic analysis from Greg Jericho (Grogs Gamut). For fans of Greg's graphs, this post has six:

The coverage of budgets is invariably an attempt to find the narrative - some overreaching story which apparently explains what has happened and what is coming in the next year or more.

Some stories can be written without even paying heed to the innards of the budget papers. Take the Treasurer's speech which began:

Tonight this Labor Government makes the choice to keep our economy strong and invest in our future. To support jobs and growth in an uncertain world.

This could be cut and pasted and used in any future (or past) budget speech regardless of party, year or state of the economy.

For the most part the political narrative has been written as well. This is the final Swan budget, the Swan song, the attempt to lock in Labor's legacy. No budget is ever really a political game changer, and for the Government this budget comes very much in the shadow of last year's.

A year ago the narrative was about a surplus - the path to surplus was clear and it was also writ in stone as a holy good.

This year, if there is any real narrative beyond the usual humdrum, it is that we might finally be facing up to the reality of the post-GFC world.
Budget faces up to Australia's economic reality

Religious-based Overseas Aid NGO Micah Challenge expressed concerns that the foreign aid target of 0.5% of Gross National Income has been delayed a year and funds diverted to asylum seeker programs within Australia. However, its response contained a strong plus side:

The aid budget will grow by $518 million from last year, reaching almost $5.7 billion dollars, or 0.37% of Gross National Income (GNI).

...the Foreign Minister went out of his way to note the strength of the community campaigning, and Parliamentary lobbying, that led to foreign aid being increased, when many other Government programs are being cut.

...Second, there was a bigger than expected increase in funding to Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WaSH) programs – a 70% increase from $164 million last year to $279 million in this budget.

...The Government also announced a commitment to invest $391 million over the next for years to accelerate progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Asia and the Pacific – targeting, particularly, MDG 1 on hunger, MDG 2 on education and MDG 5 on maternal mortality.
AUSTRALIA'S AID BUDGET 2013-14: DELAYED, DIVERTED BUT STILL DOING GOOD

Finance commentator Michael Pascoe has had this to say to the scaremongers:

After all the rather mindless carry on about having a surplus or not having a surplus and then just how big a deficit it might be, we can at last breathe easy with the knowledge that the federal government will finish this financial year with a deficit of about $19 billion. And that’s actually a fine thing.

And so is a deficit of about $18 billion for the next financial year. Substantially smaller deficits this year or next really wouldn’t be worth the economic cost.
Thanks for the deficit, really

Finally, the expenditure about which Julia Gillard's government, indeed all Australians, should be justly proud - the National Disability Insurance Scheme (DisabilityCare). From Julia's speech to parliament:

Much of the mainstream media have chorused that none of this matters because the election result is in the bag for Abbott's austerity Coalition. They seem to acknowledge that the Liberal National razor will cut most worthwhile initiatives if they win. For the rest of us, there are votes to cast in four months time - a chance to vote for meaningful progressive programs.

A chance to vote against the cynicism and negativity bred of self-interest and greed.

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Disability Funding Triumph: Progressive Blogosphere Abdicates

This week we saw a major achievement in Australian policy - the bi-partisan acceptance of an increase in the Medicare levy to help fund the National Disability Insurance Scheme (DisabilityCare). There was considerable activity on social media before Tony Abbott's concession but there has been a deadening silence in the progressive blogosphere since.

When you google Oz blogs for the last four days, there are no posts heralding this policy triumph. In fact it seems that many have just accepted it as a political victory for Abbott, not a policy win for Julia Gillard's government. A lone voice has been Gary Sauer-Thompson at Public Opinion but even his post was titled Perhaps:

The disability people got what they wanted: a secure funding source that will partially pay for the NDIS and bipartisan support. That means the Coalition will find it hard to renege at a later date because they are publicly committed to the national disability insurance scheme.

If the conservatives keep their word, the NDIS will be a major legacy of the Labor government, whether it is reelected or not. Abbott's "conditional" support of the levy contained his usual dissembling but once the legislation is passed, he should be locked in.

Yesterday Victoria signed up to NDIS, just as we are abandoning the field to the Liberal National Party policy void. Despondency over the polls and government policy failures must not make Abbott's austerity a fait accompli.

Schools, climate change and the NBN are just a few reasons to keep up the political fight. If progressive bloggers cannot step up, then it is probably time to archive their blogs and retreat into the twitter ether or a subscription to Foxtel.

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Julia's Community Cabinet: Policy Sounding Without Fury

There were quite a few surprises at Julia Gillard's Community Cabinet on 17 April 2013, hosted by Norwood Secondary College in Melbourne's eastern suburb of Ringwood.

Cabinet members held one-on-one interviews before a public forum that lasted over an hour. The government school is in the Federal seat of Deakin held by Labor's Mike Symons. Deakin only needs a swing of 2.41% to change hands but Mike certainly is not conceding anything.

First surprise was that the protesters outside came from only one interest group: the Animal Justice party had mustered over 100 supporters. There were no climate sceptics, no refugee advocates, no University students highlighting funding cuts, no representatives of the monied classes protesting class warfare. This was despite the school being well served by public transport and freeways.

Secondly, the usual suspects did not appear to be inside the event either. Registration was open to all-comers, taking three days to fill apparently. Questions were taken at random. If they were rigged then the PM's slip, in nominating a woman incorrectly as a man, belied that notion.

Someone was handing out the Citizens Electoral Council of Australia newspaper. It is a very reality-challenged organisation - see footnote*** for a taste of their parallel universe.

Somewhat upexpected was the very warm and loud reception Julia Gillard received from the standing-room only crowd. At times it felt more like one of Gough Whitlam's public meetings, with plenty of true believers in attendance. In addition, the government's DisabilityCare program seemed to have attracted a significant number of the participants.

The level of civility was also surprising given the depths of public abuse and denigration our political discord has reached recently. Exchanges were good-humoured and without interjections. Great to see that democracy can flourish without descending to soem parody of a survivor reality TV program. No testosterone, and no belittling!

In fact, there was very little spin. Don't take my partisan word for it. Watch the video. It isn't very entertaining unless you're a political junkie. (I met one of those at Ringwood station afterwards, a young man complete with suit, who was bitterly disappointed that he had not managed to have his photo taken with Julia. I had to settle for a brief encounter with our outstanding Health Minister Tanya Pliberek.)

Issues raised by the participants included: climate change, legal aid, same sex marriage, the Royal Commission into child abuse in religious institutions, gay rights in aged care facilities, school education funding, industrial relations, pensioners.

One question that brought agreement from much of the audience was a non-policy one: "The Labor Party has been making a difference for the whole of Australia. Why on earth doesn't the general public know?". Might sound like a Dorothy-Dixer but it wasn't: "Labor's promotion and publicity is absolutely woeful."

The Community cabinet was sound rather than sensational. Julia Gillard certainly hasn't given up and her focus was on what distinguishes her government from Abbott's austere opposition: good policy. Substance over noise!


[*** From the CECA's The New Citizen: "Prince Philip and Queen Elizabeth II have openly, repeatedly proclaimed their intent to kill some six billion human beings, in order to consolidate permanent, worldwide British imperial rule." Won't waste your time by including a weblink.]

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Fresh Air: Back to Campaign Fundamentals

After watching the self-parody on ABCTV 7.30 on Monday, I’ve made a decision.

I’ve been following the media and politics for more than half a century. The advent of the internet has enabled the average punter to document and critique the media's role in day-to-day news coverage and opinion, and election campaign coverage in particular. Increasingly I’ve become one of those critics.

Reluctantly I’m withdrawing from the field until after the Federal election and leaving it to the growing band that have been inspired by bloggers such as Grog’s Gamut and Mr Denmore.

It’s time to get back to some campaigning fundamentals. Elections should be about vision, policies and programs. The focus should be on past and present achievements, options and promises, the skills and expertise of candidates, the quality of the leadership.

Paul Keating famously said, “when you change the government, you change the nation”. It also changes our international role: at the UN, in climate change forums etc. The election should be about the choices we have and the kind of nation and world we want.

Those interested in the game rather than the result can salivate over opinion polls, leadership speculation, personal attacks, fancy public relations and spin. It should not be about standup comedy, glib lines and media stunts. Politics is too important to be just another reality show as part of Planet Hollywood.

Those who try to hold the media accountable when it dresses up regime change as news and entertainment as analysis have a vital job to do. Please keep it up!

Just bowing out of covering the media circus, blow by blow. Not political discourse itself. Will leave Tony Jones, Chris U, Leigh Sales, Kochie and Karl, Michelle and Laurie, Piers and Andrew to the rest of you.

I’m enjoying the fresh air already. I’ll be lurking on the policy patch. It’s the deep end so it’s not crowded. Most of the media would be out of their depth. (Love a mixed-metaphor!)

PS. Of course, media concentration and public broadcasting are public policy areas that remain inbounds.

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Turning the Crime Commission into the Real Sports Villain

So is the real villain in Aussie sport the Australian Crime Commission, closely followed by the Federal government? From the ACC website:

'As an agency we provide intelligence, investigation and criminal database services.

...We are a niche, complementary agency that delivers specialist capabilities and intelligence to other agencies in the law enforcement community and broader government.

...The ACC can draw on special coercive powers which enable it to source information that cannot be accessed through traditional policing methods.'

So they're a small, secret and apparently toothless mob (in the Aussie sense of course). The latest report is part of Project Aperio which investigated 'the extent of use of PIEDs by professional athletes, the size of this market and the extent of organised criminal involvement.' It is supposed to provide 'an important opportunity for Government, regulatory bodies and the sporting industry to address these issues head on'. It is a follow-up to their 2010–11 Illicit Drug Data Report.

According to the ministerial statement by Jason Clare and Kate Lundy:

'The Australian Crime Commission has referred its findings in relation to suspected criminal activity to relevant law enforcement agencies including the Australian Federal Police and all State and Territory Police Forces.

ASADA [Australian Sports Anti-Doping Authority] and other regulatory agencies will undertake additional investigations on the basis of the Crime Commission findings.'

The thinnest parts of the report concern organised crime links, and match-fixing. The hot bits are in the full report no doubt. The ACC works and reports in secrecy it seems. It will be interesting to see if any prosecutions result or is it just a “wake-up call”.

Part of ASADA role is to enforce 'any breach of a policy by ensuring those violating anti-doping rules are prosecuted and sanctioned'. According to its media release:

'...it has met with the two major sporting codes following the commencement of its formal investigation in late January 2013.
During the course of ASADA’s investigation, it will approach individual clubs as required to complete its investigative work.'

Unfortunately for those who would like names named:

'ASADA is not able to talk publicly about its investigation of these codes and that includes speculating about, or naming clubs or individuals until such time as its legislation permits.

This ensures the integrity of the investigation and the privacy of any individual under investigation is protected.'

It seems that all those innocents in the sports industry who are currently outraged about the ACC processes have nothing to fear but... possibly unavoidable collateral damage such as loss of sponsorships. The alternative seems to be keeping the public in the dark about the extent of the problems surrounding sports doping, match-fixing and criminal connections.

Sponsors can take Olympic beach volleyball gold medalist Kerri Pottharst's advice: 'Time for sponsors to put their $'s in clean sports and Aussies that don't cheat'.

The ACC was established by the Howard government in 2002. Its powers, and those of similar bodies, reflect our lack of vigilance following September 11,2001.

It didn’t take long for the conspiracy theorists to decide that the government had released the report to deflect publicity from itself. I favour the alternative: Pope Benedict has fallen on his sword to save Aussie sport.

For some early responses in the blogosphere and twitterverse, please see:

Australian Sport: Drugs, Match Fixing Linked to Organised Crime

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Australian Media Fuelling Doubt with Speculation Specfest

It hasn't taken ABC Radio National's Breakfast program long to get back to normal. Its bleak view of the world in general and Australia in particular was in full swing this morning.

Presenter Fran Kelly and Michelle Grattan, daily guest from Fairfax's newspaper The Age, shared their usual specfest about the national political scene. They hit a new low, discussing the speculation that there may be further ministerial resignations from the Gillard government before the 14 September election.

The analysis: "it is fuelling doubt". It's all about perceptions: "impressions of chaos", "perceptions have taken over". As Kelly noted, Grattan's article on Saturday argued that "JULIA Gillard's problems with her reshuffle will be how it is perceived".

By whom, the press gallery? I'm sure they're not using terms such as "sinking ship" or "spinning out of control". On ABC Tv news, Greg Jennett offered this gem when introducing Gillard's press conference with the two retiring ministers: "These are the melancholy days of governing". An "emotional" event in the PM's words, a sad day. Why the hyperbole, with an emotive, negative and inaccurate word like "melancholy"?

Just who is fuelling doubt?  What was the origin of this speculation? Michelle's take on more resignations: there are "none known about. The government probably doesn't expect anymore". BUT "you never know what happens".

There aren't even the usual anonymous party sources or leaks used as justification for this kind of beat-up.

You can listen to their segment here.

This kind of negativity goes hand-in-hand with the constant talking-down of the Australian economy. If you believed the gloom on Breakfast and other ABC programs, you'd have sold all your shares months ago and slashed your financial wrists.

Another Fairfax journalist is grappling with this problem. Economics editor Ross Gittins wonders:

It's long been clear from polling that the electorate doesn't regard the government as good at managing the economy. 

Why this should be so is a puzzle.

At least Ross usually tries to counter this perception. The headline might well be a factor: Why voters believe the economy is in trouble

Another Fairfax publication, the Australian Financial Review, joined in the specfest in
Gillard feared leadership tilt. According to Phillip Coorey and Laura Tingle:

Fear of sparking a leadership ballot at the end of last year was a key ­reason Julia Gillard delayed until last week the decision to reshuffle her cabinet.

Or did she? Later the article gives the game away. It clearly contradicts itself under the sub-heading MEDIA SPECULATION:

While the Prime Minister did not think there was a likelihood of an actual challenge, media speculation at the time was stoking unrest.

Perhaps Phillip and Laura took turns to write paragraphs.

Apparently, the Insiders managed to get to policy matters 47 minutes into the hour long TV show. I'll rely on twitter as the source. It's as reliable as "you never know what happens"!

Anyway the current specfest is a substitute for the usual mindless speculation about the date of the election or the Kevin Rudd challenge meme. When there is no challenge or likelihood of one, the journos have to dance around it, creating their own smoke.

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From Watergate to Ashbygate: how the press makes sausages

From Watergate to Ashbygate. Thanks to the Geek Institute @geeksrulz for this timely video.

"Front Pages on Slipper Scandal. Our esteemed media at work. From Watergate to Ashbygate. A study in how the press makes sausages. Our own Australian Watergate."

Anyone who is not very concerned about the Australian media's coverage of Federal politics, is not paying attention.

If you've been offline for a few days, as I was earlier in the week, or have been relying on my usual sources/suspects The Age and The ABC, then here are a couple of new media analyses that may help:

From Mr. Denmore (Jim Parker) who looks at the general malaise - The Failed Estate: Send in the Clowns

From Sortius is a Geek exploring Tony Abbott's spin about the strange time gap in the publication of his first media release: 10 HOURS OF BULLSHIT

Anyway it doesn't matter because Michelle Gratttan, Chris Uhlmann and the press gallery have told us that it's a no-win situation politically. In fact, if you watched Friday night's ABCTV 7.30 program, you'd know that the real villain of the the week is not James Ashby, Mal Brough, the shonky lawyer or one of the many Liberal party dissemblers. It's the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard. How dare she ask for the Leader of the Opposition, Tony Abbott, to be held accountable. Or even just to tell the truth.

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Twitter: Conservatives Occupy #auspol hashtag

Mapping the Australian Twittersphere

Alex Bruns has an excellent map of the Australian Twitter follower/followee network. His analysis of hastags indicates that conservatives, especially ultra-conservatives, are dominant in the #auspol twitter tag.

It's time for progressives to even up the contest. Don't forget to add #auspol (and #ausvotes during elections) to your political tweets.

Alex Bruns is Associate Professor at ARC Centre of Excellence for Creative Industries and Innovation, Creative Industries Faculty, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.

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Oz blogosphere on Gillard's fightback

What is the Oz blogosphere saying about Gillard's fightback? My post for Global Voices:

There have been very mixed reactions to Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s decisive victory over former PM Kevin Rudd in the leadership challenge. The vote amongst Australian Labor Party parliamentarians (the caucus) was 71 – 31, despite opinions polls showing Rudd having much higher popularity with voters.

Can she unite the party and make sure that her only opponent is Opposition leader Tony Abbott?

...the inevitable sports satire came from the White Maggot (the name refers to umpires who traditionally wore white) in Rudd set to challenge Gillard as Bulldogs Number 1 Ticket Holder. The Western Bulldogs is an Australian Football League club located in Footscray, part of Julia Gillard’s electorate. The prime minister will be hoping that her bark is at least the equal of her bite.
Australia: Prime Minister Julia Gillard Wins Big in Leadership Dogfight

More

Now also available in French.

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Twitterville: Political Paralysis Before Leadership Vote

From my latest Global Voices post:

Australia’s governing party will decide between current Prime Minister Julia Gillard and the one she deposed in 2010 Kevin Rudd. Following months of speculation, Australian Labor Party parliamentarians will vote after a very self-destructive confrontation this week.

As well as bloggers such as Lavartus Prodeo and their legions of commenters, tweeters have taken to the task with gusto. #respill has been the tag of choice for many whilst the somewhat bizarre #kevenge seems to capture the mood of many others in twitterville.

...A new pro-Rudd user appeared @Vote4Rudd which asks, “Follow us if you want Kevin Rudd back!” Despite Kevin’s supposed popularity it had only 141 followers after two days.

...Parliamentarians who have not yet indicated how they will vote are being hounded on twitter. Journalists such as @ABCNews24’s reporter Latika Bourke seem relentless. After stalking Anthony Albanese MP for days she live-tweeted his whole radio interview
Australia: Political Paralysis Before Leadership Vote

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