Monday, February 11, 2008

The American Numbers game

Every four years we become instant experts on the US elections. The primaries are providing more entertainment than usual.

First the Democrats. Unless Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton dramatically change the current trend, a hung convention seems certain with all the accompanying problems. Because of the proportional allocation of delegates it's likely to be close till the end. The role of the super delegates will be crucial and controversial and may help the Republicans. For an in depth but pessimistic view see Avoiding a Convention Train Wreck by Doug Kendall.

For the Republicans, John McCain should win comfortably. However, his unpopularity with conservatives may result in Mike Huckabee becoming his choice for Vice Presidential running mate. Huckabee's creationist view of evolution should bring some heavy science to the fight on global warming. He’ll probably fix it on the third day.

The Republican system of winner-take-all helped destroy Mitt Romney's chances. I wonder if he would accept the VP position on the ticket. I'm sure that if they used the proportional method we'd have a situation similar to the Democrats. Doubtless some psephologist has worked out the figures. I'm sure Poll Bludger et al will enlighten us.

The assassination of Robert Kennedy during the 1968 primaries showed that nothing is certain in this American numbers game.

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1 comment:

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