Thursday, August 26, 2010

Labor Minority Government has Logic

If the final result of the Australian Federal election is 72 ALP, 73 LNP, 1 Green, 4 Independents, then logic seems to indicate a Gillard Labor Minority Government.

The three former Nationals (Bob Katter, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor) want a stable government that runs a full term of 3 years. If they go with their ideological home, giving the LNP 76 votes, then one by-election could cause a general election if the other independent Andrew Wilkie does not support the LNP. If they side with Labor then the margin is 77-73 with a one seat buffer.

If the result is 71/74 then the logic reverses with an Abbott conservative government more likely. Lots of counting left in Corangamite. Update: make that Brisbane.

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1 comment:

notcb said...


Forget aout the closeness of the Federal election for the moment and concentrate on who is going to win the close contest on Saturday.

The blokes from south of the Yarra (Liberal territory) or the blokes from west of the Maribyrnong (Prime Minister territory).


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