Monday, October 13, 2008

Obama's lead beyond the Bradley effect

A couple of US election sites which are worth a visit:

A hard look at reality, and what you should do is from Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium:

By the standards of Presidential elections since 1992, Barack Obama is far ahead. For most of this season he has been running about 50 EV ahead of where John Kerry ran at the same point in 2004, which ended in a near-tie. Currently the gap is even larger - it’s nearing Clinton v. Dole proportions. In the face of a down economy and abysmal approval ratings for the Bush Administration, a lead of this size by a Democrat is essentially insurmountable.

This is why John McCain’s tactics have become increasingly savage - it’s his last stand.

...In short, the wind is at Barack Obama’s back. I currently expect a final outcome of Obama 318-364 EV, McCain 174-220 EV.
He dismisses the Bradley effect, where polling overstates black candidates popularity, as no longer relevant. He claims that it only ever represented 2-3% anyway.

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll has Obama 49%,to McCain's 43%. It's daily telephone tracking poll:
The rolling telephone tracking poll, including a sample of 1,206 likely voters collected over the previous three 24-hour periods spanning four calendar days - approximately 400 per 24-hour period from Oct. 8-11, 2008 - shows Obama's lead growing from the 3.8 percentage points he enjoyed yesterday.
Obama's lead in the polls is now beyond the usual margins of error. A 2% Bradley effect would have him slightly in front of McCain. Even a surge on Wall Street like the one happening today in Australia is unlikely to save McCain's campaign.

Time to have a bet on Barack and look for a bargain or two on the stock exchange?

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