End of Empire

If you don’t watch the Insiders on Sunday mornings you missed a classic this week. John Howard’s strongest media supporter, Andrew Bolt described the current situation for the PM as having an “end of empire” feel to it. This followed an interview with independent MHRs Bob Katter and Tony Windsor who dumped on the coalition mercilessly. Both see Work Choices as a key blunder by the government. Katter believes that mining workers will desert them in droves and Windsor believes that it is a sleeper (where has he been lately). If this is half true then Sharon Thiel has a much better chance of retiring Barry Haase in Kalgoorlie than the 6.3 % margin would indicate.

Asked whom they would support if it was a hung parliament and they held the balance of power, Katter put promoting ethanol as his highest priority, while Windsor nominated opposition to nuclear power amongst his electorate as very important. A new green alliance between the independents!

At times it seems that the Deputy Prime Minister has taken advice after the AWB Iraq scandal to lie low too literally. The invisible man, Mark Vaile, should have stayed missing in action this morning:

Deputy Prime Minister Mark Vaile has denied that a delay in calling the federal election makes it look like John Howard is afraid to face the voters.
Howard not afraid of electorate: Vaile (ABC, 30 September 2007)

Apparently, football takes precedence. Only the Melbourne Cup is likely to present any equine sporting reason for further delays thanks to fellow National Peter McGauran’s quarantine vigilance. AWB and the flu outbreak show that no care and no responsibility are the order of the day in the coalition.

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Campaign casualties

It's hard to find a metaphor that isn't a sports cliche to describe Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard on the Today Show this morning. After months of them eyeing each another (they both can kill with a glance or charm when they choose to) and low key good humour, the gloves were off. Both didn't want to be seen politicising the problems in New South Wales public hospital casualty departments and said they wouldn't. That would be bad politics. It didn't last long.

In a sharp exchange Julia blamed it on the inability of Federal and State governments to work together. Tony blamed State governments. It was Abbott at his best (or worst depending on your bias). He accused Gillard of lying several times and told her to stop her verbal diarrhoea. If this is the phoney war, the Friday morning exchanges between these two will be blood sport.

Meanwhile it looks like it might be No.12 of the 12 possible reasons why John Howard hasn’t called the election yet. The Australian seems to think that the PM is bogged down in Bennelong, while Rudd tours the nation.
For more:Homework for Howard as rival ranges free(28 September 2007)

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Howard: Call an election NOW!

This video speaks for itself. Please see the previous post if you wish to add reasons why he won't call the election now. Thanks to Shirley Bassey! The full performance is on YouTube.

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Why are we waiting? Why are we waiting?

Prime Ministerial Spin

12 possible reasons why John Howard hasn’t called the election yet:

1. He’s waiting for better poll results.

2. There will be more budget surplus to squander on election promises.

3. He’s hoping something will turn up.

4. His dirty tricks aren’t ready yet.

5. He has lost his ticker.

6. Cunning judgment.

7. He hasn’t been to his soothsayer yet.

8. The taxpayer funded advertising is still going.

9. The entrails aren’t right.

10. He’s toying with Costello.

11. He regards the voters with utter contempt.

12. He’s too busy electioneering in Bennelong.

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Escape from Work Choices

I couldn’t make this one up:

A PRO-WorkChoices television advertisement featuring "union thugs" was pulled off air last night after The Sunday Age revealed that two actors featured in the advertisement were notorious criminals. (23 September 2007)

I hope they are union members. Their AWAs won’t protect them from unfair dismissal over this one. They will probably be charged with consorting given the company they’ve were keeping making this ad - the employers.

Talking of TV ads, last night SBS backed up a government, i.e. taxpayer funded, Work Choices one with an employer effort. Is the PM trying to win by a media version of the water torture – one drip at a time. There is now no escape when The Bill is on the ABC. Hope someone will get a core promise from Howard (or should it be Costello) not to have advertising on the ABC.

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E-lection 2007

Broome Voices No.3

The last in the pre-election video interviews for the youdecide2007 Kalgoorlie electorate. Eddie, who lives and works in Broome, shares his ideas about Work Choices, the Iraq war, the Northern Territory aboriginal communities intervention and water resources.

To view the other interviews, please click the LaborView Videos links on the right.

First-home-buyer baby-bonus

Things are hotting up at youdecide2007 with housing affordability the latest issue. In an interview the member for Herbert, Peter Lindsay, blamed young people for being "financially illiterate' and getting behind with their mortgages by becoming pregnant.

Obviously he's not courting the young female vote. I'm expecting a 'First-home-buyer baby-bonus' election promise to cover this gaff. The story was picked up by the SMH: Labor attacks Liberal housing comments (19 September 2007)

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American Liberalism #2

GoLeft TV sounds very radical but seems to fit comfortably into the American liberal tradition. This online service has regular news reports and a range of videos channels such as documentaries, the labour movement, consumerism and the environment. Like the Huffington Post, it is worth a visit to see what our American friends think about their President and issues which often get superficial coverage, at best, in our mass media.

Also posted at:




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Howard Swings

Latest news! Another Howard comeback. In a poll of Federal Cabinet ministers the Prime Minister's approval rating has leapt to 45%. Malcolm Turnbull received one vote for preferred PM.

At a local level it is interesting that the Democrats don't seem to have a candidate for Kalgoorlie yet. Also don't know if former member Graeme Campbell intends standing again. He could be an independent, Australia First (try his website for a scary trip) or join Pauline Hanson. If anyone knows or finds out please leave a comment.

If people are looking for an Aussie female, battler from the bush, to vote for then our ALP candidate Sharon Thiel stands out. To find out more about Kalgoorlie and other marginals visit youdecide2007 by clicking the image on the right.

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Turbulence

While we are waiting for the orgy of taxpayer funded advertising to end so that Howard can call the election, this is John Cumbers' latest badge. He is definitely the winner of the comp.

Iraq

Whenever someone writes a memoir in the States these days they dump on George Bush. Alan Greenspan is no exception. He joins Brendan Nelson in admitting that oil was a reason for the Iraq invasion. To quote from Greenspan's book, The Age of Turbulence:

I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil.

For more visit the New York Times analysis.

Polls

Latest Newspoll gets us back to reality. The ALP will not get more than 53% in the final two party preferred count and it has always been a close thing. The election will still be won one seat, one candidate at a time. Back to the fight!

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Broome Voices No.2

The extraordinary response by George Bush to the Petraeus report has committed John Howard and presumably his successor, if they win the election, to an indefinite military presence in Iraq. Not a popular position as Jeni Martin indicates in Broome Voices No.2: Jeni Martin



Hope journalists will ask the leadership aspirants, especially Peter Costello, what their positions are concerning an ongoing occupation. Remember Howard's "months, not years". That was only four and a half years ago.

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Broome Voices No.1

As promised the first video interview for youdecide2007 Kalgoorlie electorate coverage is now on YouTube: Broome Voices No.1: Neil Gower

For more detail see: A Good News Story

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Couldn't lie straight in bed!

John Howard, being honest with the Australian people:

But I would expect well into my term, and after those things have been implemented and battered down, I would probably, certainly form the view well into my term, that it makes sense for me to retire, and in those circumstances, I would expect, although it would be a matter for the Party to determine if Peter would take over.
(ABC 7.30 Report 12 September 2007)

He has "important" things to accomplish. One of those is beating Menzies record as PM. That would mean another election win after this one. He thinks he's sneaky enough to engineer that. Something will turn up or be manufactured. Only has to destabilise Kevin Rudd and most of his own loyal front bench.

As usual the mass media weren't listening closely or fell for his so-called honesty.

After the last week's low farce, more voters will now have an exit strategy for Howard. I suppose if you were a Costello supporter you'd be hoping for a narrow coalition victory with Howard losing Bennelong. Might be worth a bet - should be good odds of the double. Probably the only way Peter will ever be Prime Minister.

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A Good News Story

I have spent this week interviewing people in Broome for the YouDecide2007 project. The first was Neil Gower, CEO of Mamabulanjin Aboriginal Corporation. It is an organisation with more than $14 million in assets, providing housing, water and power supplies for community and outstation developments, gardening and landscaping, business facilitation services and bookkeeping and a tourism enterprise. It also coordinates the Night Patrol in Broome.

Its innovative approach includes the provision of solar power systems to aboriginal communities. It is involved in the development of cutting edge, web-based software that will allow organisations to manage and access their administrative data online. It is a good news story at a time when aboriginal people are being marginalised by our politicians yet again. (Outback tracking, Sydney Morning Herald, 2 July 2007)

The video is still a work in progress so watch this space.

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With friends like these

Just watching ABC coverage of the Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper's address to today's joint sitting of the Federal parliament. Two comments which must have caused John Howard more discomfort:

Firstly he joked about the Canadian Senate where Senators, who are not elected, do not have to retire until 75 but have passed their use by date.

But he drew a laugh when he complained that Canadian senators could remain in their positions until they were 75, with Mr Howard's age being subject to scrutiny since he turned 68 two months ago.

Secondly, he warned that governments have become "complacent" about their economies. His comments are a two-edged sword:

"I believe that one of the great dangers facing both of our countries is complacency about our economy - complacency because many of our citizens have long forgotten or have never experienced economic recession.

"But we cannot take this prosperity for granted."
(Canadian PM warns Aussies on the economy, The Age 11 September 2007)

Sound familiar?!

Without any sense of irony Peter Costello quoted Harper in question time. It isn't the government who are complacent. It 's the voters if they elect Rudd.

Post updated at 6:22 pm Broome time.

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What goes around...

It's so refreshing to read headlines about leadership speculation and know it's not the ALP. The blame game has started early.

It's not just Howard. What about the rest of the front bench? We have:

* harping Alexander Downer with his bitter attacks on Kevin Rudd,
* cringing Tony Abbott who seems intimidated by Julia Gillard,
* missing Philip Ruddock who seems all at sea for a change,
* blunt/blunted Nelson who is hoping for a surge of his own,
* awkward Kevin Andrews who is lying low and letting employers do all the talking
* joker Joe Hockey who thinks he's on 'Thank god you're here' whenever he sees a microphone.

I suppose they makes Peter Costello's smirk look good.

3 predictions:

* Howard will cling to power as long as he can.
* Mark Vaile doesn't have the guts to raise Howard's performance at Cabinet or anywhere else. In fact his is even more dismal.
* Costello will never be PM.

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E-lectioneering

Kevin07's team are certainly ahead of the coalition in the online stakes. If the ALP and Rudd sites are too partisan then try Howard Facts. It is authorised by the ALP National Secretary Tim Gartrell but has few references to the party and has very different branding. One interesting link can be found on the 'Enrol to Vote' page. You will find a website for ALP voters overseas ALP Voters Abroad.

Can't find an equivalent overseas site for the Libs. Perhaps that is in line with their strategy to discourage enrolments. If you know anyone overseas who needs to update their enrolment they can do it online. Just get them to click on the photo above for details.

A new site funded by the Australian Research Council is YouDecide2007. The project partners are SBS, On Line Opinion, the Brisbane Institute and QUT's Creative Industries Faculty. It is using "citizen journalists" to stimulate coverage and debate in marginal electorates. If you're in the Kalgoorlie electorate you can contact me for input, register yourself or use the comment sections on the website.

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How did education get on the agenda?

When education and business get together, inevitably we find IT taking centre stage. Also upfront was President of Chile, Michelle Bachelet, who took a different tack at APEC today. She argued that one of the world's biggest challenges is adapting education to the new technologically-savvy generation:

"The educational system that we want must motivate and teach generations of students who, before entering university, have already played 10,000 hours of video games, received and sent 20,000 emails, talked 10,000 hours through mobile phones, and many more..."

For the Emma Alberici's full story see: APEC business summit lessens 'political feel'

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APEC Updates

2 Updates:

Comedy First

The Chaser should run a Senate team as the Comedy First Party. I’m sure they could pick up the seats the Democrats will lose. The whole APEC circus may have unforseen consequences for Sydney marginals. Still too early for Maxine to pack her bags for Canberra but one more glowing endorsement of Howard by George W should do the trick.
We outlanders grow more bemused by the day.

Morgan Chase

60% ALP 40% LCP is surreal. Catch us if you can! Visit Gary's latest poll.

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10 Reasons to be in Sydney

10 Reasons I'd like to be in Sydney today for APEC:

1. Our troops staying in Iraq


2. To support the Chaser


3. Global warming


4. Because I miss rain and traffic jams


5. Missed protesting against Howard, Downer and Heffernan on their visits to Broome this year


6. To catch up with friends at the demo


7. To march for democracy


8. To get away from tourists


9. World poverty


10. The invasion of NT aboriginal communities by Mal Brough

If you haven't joined the The Chaser's War on Everything Appreciation Society group on Facebook, join us today.

Labor View is intended as a place for labor supporters to share ideas and opinions. When you visit please leave a COMMENT below. Add your reasons to the list.

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Wish I were there!

Busy time in Broome this week - annual Shinju Matsuri festival. Wish you were here.

If Sydney weren't the de facto capital of Australia the rest of us would have to feel sorry for the APEC shutdown. Good thing Howard and Bush weren't going to the races.

Anyway it's a good time for people to focus on the big picture, not just Aussie politics. Good that there is a public holiday on Friday so voters can attend the demonstration. Wish I was there.

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Howard Exit Strategy #2

Even Paul Kelly is questioning whether Howard should leave before he is thrown out. He wrote yesterday

If Liberals fear oblivion, John Howard must reassess whether he is the best leader for the party.
...if the Liberal Party really believes the election is lost, then Howard must consider his responsibility as leader. He needs, at least, to re-examine his position and decide whether its logic remains valid.
(Risk of Annihilation, The Australian 4 September 2007)

John Howard has had plenty of opportunities to leave with his dignity intact. He cannot resign now because that would guarantee defeat. It would probably be the end of Peter Costello's ambitions as well.

We can expect the usual mix of Howard electioneering. Lots of targeted spending promises. Tax cuts for swinging voters. Fear and loathing against all the usual suspects like unions and anti-Australian elements (code for Muslims and young activists). And of course a prayer that something will turn up. If it doesn't, then they will manufacture another children overboard.

Listening to Mark Vaile after he met Bush this morning, it was obvious that the Deputy PM should join his boss and find an exit strategy. The National party have become a joke. Unless of course you're in the racing industry. In the West they are running ads asking people to complain about Telstra's Next G network. Anyone would think they hadn't betrayed the bush by selling it.

The exit strategy for our troops in Iraq is the same one for the tired coalition ministry. It is in the hands of the voters.

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Why aren't they smiling?

APEC should be a time for government ministers to celebrate. We know why these two aren't smiling. Click on Johnny's smirk to see why.

I'm not gloating, not even confident yet. But you should enjoy being in front at three quarter time.

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Missing

One of the APEC leaders whose visit should be celebrated this week is Chile's socialist President Michelle Bachelet. She has been in Australia before, as a political refugee from the Pinochet regime during the mid 1970's. She had been imprisoned and tortured following the bloody CIA backed overthrow of the Allende government.

For those who would like a reminder of the nature of political violence, in a week when demonstrations will dominate our screens, get hold of a copy of "Missing". This Costa-Gavras film starring Jack Lemmon and Sissy Spacek is based on the experiences of a conservative American who searches for his son after the 1973 coup. It won an academy for best screenplay.

The film is the best and worst of America. If Jack were still alive I'm sure that, like Peter Garrett, he'd be no fan of George W. Bush. Anyway, I'm a big fan of this movie.

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Another Letdown for Indigenous Children

A Maningrida doctor has strongly criticised child health checks taking part under the Howard/Brough NT intervention. Maningrida is an aboriginal community of more than 2,500 people in Arnhem Land.

Paul Burgess says the checks, part of the Federal Government's intervention into Indigenous child sex abuse, are being carried out by inexperienced doctors who know little about Aboriginal issues.

"I doubt that we're going to find many cases [of child sexual abuse] with the current procedure," he said.

"The best way to provide health care for children is to adequately resource primary health care teams within communities." (ABC News Radio Fri Aug 31, 2007)

He said that the women and children who spoke to the Little Children are Sacred Inquiry are being letdown.

Maningrida has a Health clinic of which they are proud and an active Health Board. During our 4 years there, they faced chronic shortages and high turnover of doctors. This was a direct result of the health policies of the coalition which would not accept until recently that Australia has had chronic skill shortages across the spectrum. Let's hope that the commitment to aboriginal health will not wane after the election.

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Exit Strategy For Howard Government

Howard to exit in “months not years”
George Bush has an exit strategy for Australian troops in Iraq. By advocating Howard’s re-election, he is helping to make sure that little Johnny will be another casualty – collateral damage.

Bush’s attempt at bullying Kevin Rudd and by implication Australian public opinion will not work again. When Rudd speaks of “we” he is talking about a sizeable majority of voters.

It’s ‘déjà vu writ large. Three years ago just before the election we were told that conditions were improving “on the ground”. We had to stay the course. Now the surge is working. Trust the generals and the failed political leaders in Washington, Canberra (or is that Sydney?) and Baghdad.

Now we face the ultimate spin. Our conundrum: We have to stay in Iraq because we may be winning and it’s only a matter of time. Or alternatively things are so bad that if we leave it will be a disaster for the world, not just Iraqis.

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